Kamala Harris Takes Double-Digit Lead Over Trump in Critical District—Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by double digits in a key Nebraska district, according to a new poll.
A CNN and SSRS survey, published on Friday, shows Harris with an 11 percent lead over Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, a key battleground that awards a single electoral vote. The Democrat has 53 percent of likely voters, while 42 percent back Trump.
This marks her strongest performance in the district since entering the presidential race, with earlier polls showing a lead for the Democrat ranging from 5 percent to 8 percent.
Of those voting for Harris, 61 percent said their vote was in support of the vice president, while 38 percent indicated it was more a vote against the GOP nominee, with anti-Trump sentiment remaining a key factor driving voter mobilization, according to the survey.
In contrast, the dynamics among Trump’s supporters differ significantly. A substantial 74 percent of his voters said their support is driven by alignment with Trump and his policies, reflecting a more policy-focused or loyal voter base. Only 26 percent of Trump supporters are primarily motivated by opposition to Harris.
The poll reveals that most people have largely made up their minds, with 87 percent firmly decided on their choice for November, while 12 percent say they could still change their vote.
Nebraska has long been a Republican stronghold in presidential elections, but its 2nd District has twice awarded its electoral vote to the Democratic nominee—once for Barack Obama in 2008 and again for Joe Biden in 2020.
Its 2nd District is one of the few in the country that grants a single electoral vote based on the district’s popular vote, making it a key target for both parties, and it has become especially significant for Harris.
According to the media-tracking firm AdImpact, Harris and Democratic groups have spent more than $5 million in the district since she entered the race on July 23, and have more than $6 million in ad time reserved through Election Day, November 5.
Still, Democrats can’t take the district for granted, as former President Trump won it in 2016, and the Republican nominee Mitt Romney claimed it in 2012 when running against Barack Obama.
Confident of a landslide victory in the Cornhusker State, Trump’s campaign has taken a different approach and spent only about $95,000 on advertising, with recent polls predicting a comfortable win for Trump.
At the same time, Republicans in the state have been pushing to change the rules. They are attempting to persuade the Republican-dominated Legislature to make Nebraska a winner-take-all contest, instead of awarding its Electoral College votes by congressional district—a move that could have shifted the electoral vote Biden won in the 2nd District in 2020 to Trump.
However, 60 percent of voters in the district expressed support for keeping the current system for awarding electoral votes, with the remaining 40 percent backing the change.
For Nebraska’s 2nd District to break the tie in the race for the winning majority of 270 Electoral College votes, Trump would have to win all Republican-leaning states plus Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. He would also have to win Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which he won in 2020 while losing the state overall.
Harris would have to win all Democratic-leaning states, including Maine, plus three northern battlegrounds, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, for Nebraska’s 2nd to make the difference.
The CNN survey was conducted online and over the phone from Sept. 20-25 among 749 likely voters in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. The margin of error was 4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.